Republican Van Epps projected winner in Tennessee House special election

Election Results & Analysis - Republican Matt Van Eps won Tennessee's seventh congressional district, succeeding Mike Green [1] - Van Eps led by eight points with approximately 75% of the vote counted, a margin of about 10,000 votes over Afton Bane [2] - Bane strongly led in Davidson County (Nashville) with a 65-point lead, indicating high Democratic turnout there [3] - Van Eps exceeded expectations in rural Republican areas, swing areas, and the well-to-do suburbs of Williamson County [4] Voting Trends - A significant difference existed between early voting (won by Bane) and election day voting (a landslide for Van Eps) [5] - Republicans highlighted Bane's far-left positions and inflammatory rhetoric, potentially influencing late and swing voters [6][7] - Republicans believe they can tie Democratic candidates to figures like AOC and Bernie Sanders to sway swing voters [14] Historical Context & Future Implications - Donald Trump won this district by 22 points in 2024 and 16 points in 2020, highlighting its Republican lean [8][11] - Democrats aimed for a single-digit loss to demonstrate momentum, and an eight-point loss still represents a stride in a Republican area [13][15] - Late interest in Van Eps's campaign coincided with support from figures like Speaker Mike Johnson and the president [10]