X @Michaël van de Poppe

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle, often based on the 4-year halving cycle, is a core investment dynamic in Web3, but its relationship with price appreciation is diminishing due to other factors [1][3] - The market experienced a 35% correction, highlighting the ongoing debate between bulls and bears regarding the 4-year cycle's validity [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the price dynamics, injecting nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity and establishing a new price floor more than 100% higher than the previous one [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic headwinds, including quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates, continue to influence the Bitcoin cycle [6] - Bitcoin's performance is inversely correlated with the strength of Gold, as it thrives during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest [7] - Liquidity cycles were significantly longer before 2008, averaging between 8-10 years, suggesting the current cycle might be in the middle of a larger bull cycle [9] Correlation and Future Outlook - The correlation between the strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Ethereum against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may indicate an extended Bitcoin cycle, potentially mirroring the mid-stages of 2016 or 2019 [12][13][14][15] - Combining the business cycle with Bitcoin cycles suggests the market might be in the middle of a peak bear phase, comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019 [17][18] - Looking forward to 2026-2027, factors like Bank of America's allowance for Bitcoin ETF allocation, the Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing (QE) suggest a less bearish outlook than the traditional 4-year cycle would indicate [19][20]