Bitcoin: A Different Kind of Bear Market?

Market Cycle Analysis - The cryptocurrency industry observes Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of post-halving years, potentially recurring in Q4 2025 [3] - The industry notes current social interest in crypto is significantly lower compared to 2021 and 2017, indicating a different market dynamic [7] - The analysis suggests the recent Bitcoin bull market resembles the 2019 pattern, with a potential bare market rally to $100,000 before further decline into summer 2026 [9][10] - The report considers a scenario where Bitcoin's top occurred before the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, similar to 2019, suggesting continued bleeding until significant monetary easing [14][15] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis posits that substantial Bitcoin breakout requires looser monetary policy, likely triggered by an S&P 500 crash [16] - The report mentions the Federal Reserve chair is likely to be replaced in the summer of 2026, potentially leading to aggressive rate cuts [17] Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoins - The industry is bullish on Bitcoin dominance due to the end of quantitative tightening (QT), drawing parallels to 2019 [20][21] - The analysis anticipates a potential spike in Bitcoin dominance, followed by altcoin lows against Bitcoin until looser monetary policy is implemented [22] Potential Bare Market Scenarios - The report speculates on a bare market lasting until approximately October 2026, potentially resembling the 2019 pattern due to a non-euphoric top [23][26] - The analysis suggests a possible Bitcoin drop to $60,000-$70,000 by the summer, potentially marking a low before a rebound [35] - The industry notes Bitcoin tends to return to the 200-week moving average in midterm years, currently around $56,000 [34]