Branch: Dislocations start in private equity and venture capital

Market Bubble & Potential Weakness - The market may experience pressure as wealth is sold to provide necessary funds, regardless of a bubble [1] - Dislocations are expected in private equity and venture capital due to firms needing to support existing positions that may no longer be feasible [3] - Weakness may emerge in SAS and other software companies if their functions are replaced by AI or other technologies [4] - Issues have already surfaced in the private credit space [4] Earnings Growth & Market Safety - Strong double-digit earnings growth could safeguard the market [4] - The peak impact of physical and monetary stimulus from the previous year is expected to continue through the end of next year, potentially driving double-digit earnings growth into 2026 and beyond [4] - Continued strong tailwinds behind topline and double-digit earnings growth could mitigate the impact of dislocations [5] - The firm has a bullish S&P price target of 7,500, indicating confidence in strong earnings [6] Consumer & Consumption Dynamics - The firm is bullish on consumption but mixed on the consumer [7] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption [8] - The bottom third of earners account for only 15% of consumption [9] Inflation & Political Issues - Inflation is anticipated to be more of a political issue than an economic one in 2026 [9][11] - The affordability crisis will be intertwined with inflation and will be a central issue as the midterms approach [11] - The affordability crisis affects a plurality of people, particularly the bottom half of earners, making it a key political concern [12]