Bull market will continue run in 2026, will be bumps in the road: Hennion & Walsh's Kevin Mahn

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its bull run and notch its fourth consecutive year in 2026, but with more short-term volatility than in 2025 [3] - Historically, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates when the S&P 500 is near its all-time high has led to market increases, averaging just under 14% over the next 12 months [2][3] - The Fed funds target rate could move into a range of 3 and 1/2 to 3 and 3/4% if interest rates are cut this week [10] - The market may only see 50 basis points more of cuts to get to neutral, potentially two 25 basis points cuts [10] - There may only be one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027 before a new, potentially more dovish, Fed chair comes in, which could lead to a 150 basis point cut [11] Company Specific Analysis - Oracle needs to demonstrate aggressive revenue and future growth to revive the AI trade and alleviate concerns about capex and debt [5] - Oracle's performance is crucial for soothing AI valuations and addressing AI capex and debt concerns that have been weighing on the market [6] - Oracle needs to show that its five-year plan is intact, if not better, to reassure investors [8] Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) - Increased M&A activity is a positive economic signal, benefiting private equity, small caps, and banks involved in deal-making [16] - Netflix felt confident that the deal with Warner Brothers would go through, but Trump's comments might spook investors [13][14] - Paramount's massive bid of 30 a share led to a 9% increase in its stock price, while Netflix's stock continued to decline [15]