CNBC Fed Survey: 45% of respondents say the Fed should cut by 25 bps in December

Fed Rate Cut Expectations & Opinions - 87% of respondents expect the Fed to cut rates this week, but only 45% believe the Fed should cut rates, showing a significant difference in opinion [1] - The median expectation is for two dissents regarding the rate cut [1] - Only 35% expect a rate cut by January [1] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute believes the Fed will cut rates in December, even if it's not the most rational decision [1] - Some respondents suggest the Fed needs to cut rates due to potential weakness in the job market [1] - Alan Sinai of Decision Economics suggests a preemptive 50 basis point cut is appropriate due to widespread weakening of the labor market [1] Economic Risks - Continued high inflation is seen as the biggest risk to the economy [1] - Concerns include the potential bursting of the AI bubble, Fed independence, the fiscal deficit, and administrative policy uncertainty [1] Economic Outlook - The growth outlook is ticking up, running at 2% this year and higher next year [1] - Inflation is forecast to remain above the 2% target [1] - KPMG suggests the likely stimulus from record tax refunds in the first half of 2026 is being underappreciated, potentially understating the risk of persistent inflation [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise only slightly next year and decline a bit in 2027, indicating a relatively stable job market [1] Labor Market Assessment - The belief is that upcoming data will reveal a weaker labor market, outweighing concerns about higher inflation [2]