Former Richmond Fed President: I expect a ‘very hawkish’ Fed press conference

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - A rate cut is expected, but there may be dissent from some members [1] - The market anticipates a rate cut, but the speaker expects a hawkish press conference signaling a higher bar for future cuts [2] - The speaker believes the Federal Reserve has an inflation problem at 3% compared to the 2% target, while the labor market is in balance [3] - The speaker acknowledges arguments for a softening labor market based on unemployment rate and quits rate [6] Labor Market Analysis - The current labor market is considered healthy with unemployment well below 5% [3] - There's a debate about whether the bigger problem is inflation or the labor market, with concerns about potential disruptions in the labor market [4][5] - The speaker notes a market with less churn, fewer separations, and less hiring [7] Future Uncertainty - Predicting the next year is exceptionally hard due to uncertainty around monetary policy and the transition in the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve [8] - There's uncertainty about how the expected new chairman will approach monetary policy [9]