We're expecting 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 2.2%, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Economic Outlook - Mastercard Economic Institute expects US GDP growth of 22% in 2026, driven by AI and trade realignment [2] - The Institute anticipates moderate inflation in the US, with continued disinflation in the services sector [7][8] - Global GDP is forecasted to grow by 31% [14] Consumer Spending - Black Friday spending increased by 41% year-over-year [4] - The Institute projects mid-3% growth for overall holiday spending [4] - US spending on e-commerce from Chinese mainland initially grew by 20% year-over-year (January-April) but contracted by 6% (May-September), offset by increased European spending on Chinese mainland e-commerce [6] Labor Market & Investment - Despite some slowdown in job creation in 2025, active investment in the digital economy and AI continued [10] - Lower-income tiers are experiencing a slowdown in wage growth compared to higher-income populations [13] Uncertainty & Policy - Policy changes can create uncertainty, causing businesses to pause and wait for clarity [9]