DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: I don't feel like that was a hawkish cut
CNBC Television·2025-12-10 21:14

Fed Policy Stance - The market interprets the Fed's recent actions as a dovish meeting rather than a hawkish cut, despite the rate cut [1][2][7][10] - The Fed is perceived to be more focused on employment risks, specifically the potential rise in unemployment, than on inflationary pressures [6] - The Fed seems to downplay inflationary risks, suggesting good progress on inflation, if not for tariffs [3][4][5] Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) - The Fed has unexpectedly ramped up QE by $40 billion, after a period of QT, raising hopes for further QE if needed [7] Interest Rate Dynamics - Despite the Fed dropping rates by 175 basis points since September, the 2-year Treasury rate remains unchanged [6] - The Fed funds rate is now in line with the 2-year Treasury yield [5][6] - Long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have risen by approximately 75 basis points since the Fed started cutting rates [8][9] - The 2s30s Treasury curve has steepened to around 123-124 basis points, approaching the year's high of 130 basis points [10] Economic Assessment - The Fed estimates that monthly jobs gains are overstated by approximately 60,000, suggesting a potentially weaker labor market than reported [2] - The market believes that cutting interest rates is not helpful for long-term interest rates [9] - Cutting rates by 175 basis points has not helped the housing market [8]