Trump Expected to Label Pot a Less Dangerous Drug

Market Trend & Policy Analysis - Anticipation of President Trump directing agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule three drug, similar to common painkillers, is driving market activity [2] - The potential reclassification would not legalize marijuana but could allow cannabis companies access to banking services and a different tax status [3] - The President's authority to unilaterally reclassify marijuana is limited, and the order is expected to direct the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the DEA to restart the rulemaking change process [5] - Resistance within the DEA remains a concern, potentially hindering the reclassification process [7][8] Investment Opportunities & Risks - Rescheduling is not legalization and doesn't necessarily lead to increased market share for cannabis companies; the primary impact is on the tax code, potentially reducing the tax rate from 40% to around 10-15% [9] - Legalization has a 30% chance, which would prohibit market share growth and organic growth [10] - Retail sentiment is driving some of the current market activity, as seen in the 30% increase in Canadian pot equities, even though the rescheduling primarily applies to US companies [13] - Rescheduling primarily benefits mom and pop farms, but larger companies are expected to consolidate the industry as regulations improve [15][16] Company Financials & Tax Implications - Tax relief from rescheduling is expected to be available for the 2026 tax season in 2027 [17] - The key financial impact of rescheduling is a change in the tax structure, not necessarily organic market share growth [18]