2026 will be next chapter of housing market story, says Compass Mike Simonsen

Market Outlook - Housing market is expected to turn a corner in 2026 with flat national home prices [1] - Sales are projected to increase while prices are capped or potentially decrease, leading to improved affordability [3] - Compass anticipates 2026 as the beginning of a new era for the housing market, with sales increasing and prices stabilizing [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Withdrawals of listings were notably higher in 2025, representing potential shadow demand rather than just shadow supply [6][7] - Approximately 150,000 people are estimated to be waiting to move, representing delayed demand [7] - In certain markets, withdrawals represent demand rather than supply [7] Regional Variations - Florida is showing strong transaction velocity, with weekly pending sales up by 10-15% year-over-year [8] - New York Tri-State area and Chicago area sales growth has been limited by tight inventory [8] Interest Rates Impact - Consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to absolute levels [9] - Forecast assumes mortgage rates in the low sixes, allowing for sales growth with capped prices due to sufficient inventory [10]