Economy to remain K-shaped in 2026, says Charles Schwab's Sonders

Market Trends & Dynamics - Expectation of increased dispersion in MAG7 stocks as the AI trade shifts focus [1] - Broadening market participation is likely to continue, albeit unevenly [1] - Market breadth, measured by the percentage of S&P constituents outperforming the index, increased from 17% over the past 6 months to 61% over the past month [2] - Small caps show the best improvement in breadth relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages among the three major indexes (Russell 2000, S&P, and NASDAQ) [3] - The economy is showing signs of slowing, a trend expected to persist into 2026 [5] Earnings & Multiples - Earnings have been driving market performance since August, offsetting flat multiple expansion [6] - Earnings trajectory needs to remain strong for another robust year in 2026 [6] Small Cap Analysis - Unprofitable stocks within the Russell 2000, representing approximately 40% of the index, have increased by 62% since April 8th, in contrast to the profitable stocks which are up 29% [8] - Recently, profitable stocks within small caps are showing more acceleration [9] - Recommendation to reduce exposure to unprofitable, lower-quality segments within small caps and increase exposure to higher-quality, profitable segments [9]