Akoner: The rotation from mega-cap tech into small caps and cyclicals is underway

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Rising oil prices due to sanctions on Venezuela and potential sanctions on Russia could impact the Fed's easing path, especially if it affects CPI data [1][2][3] - Rotation is expected to continue, with capital moving from high multiple mega-cap winners to small caps, cyclicals, and international markets [4][5] - Easy monetary policy from the Fed, including the end of quantitative tightening and rate cuts, along with fiscal policy, will likely support this trend [5][13] Investment Opportunities & Sector Analysis - Small caps, particularly the S&P 600, are favored due to undervaluation and historical outperformance during rate-cutting cycles [5][7] - Fiscal policy and tax bills are expected to benefit R&D-intensive small caps, but high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flows are preferred [8] - Financials are viewed optimistically, especially regional banks, with strong fundamental backdrop and potential for further growth [9] - Financials are experiencing the second strongest earning season in the S&P 500, with 25% year-over-year earnings growth expected, driven by steepening yield curve and capital markets activity [10] - Banks, insurance, and banks tied to capital markets activity are attractive within the financials sector [11] IPO Market - Increased liquidity and easy monetary policy are creating a positive environment for the IPO market [13] - The upcoming Medline IPO, the largest of the year, and the resolution of the government shutdown are expected to release a bottleneck of IPOs [12] Consumer Spending & Tax Refunds - Anticipated tax refunds in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion next year, or $1,000 to $2,000 per household, are expected to boost consumer-sensitive sectors [14][16] - Consumer discretionary, home builders, and banks are expected to benefit from the influx of tax refunds in early 2026 [15][16]