Sen: Oil moves look muted because oversupply is still the dominant market theme

Market Overview - Brent crude oil price has crossed above $60, while WTI crude oil price is up about 2% this morning [2] - The market is currently dominated by oversupply concerns [3] - The market is digesting a lot of supply, which is why a 15 million barrels per day supply loss isn't causing significant jitters [7] Sanctions and Disruptions - Potential sanctions on Russian oil are being considered if Putin doesn't agree to a Ukraine peace deal [1][4] - Approximately 40% of Venezuelan oil exports, equivalent to about 500,000 barrels per day, have been on US-sanctioned vessels [2][5] - There has already been a slowdown in Russian oil arrivals, down over 1 million barrels per day since the last set of US sanctions [2][6] - About 15 million barrels per day of supply is at risk due to potential sanctions on both Venezuela and Russia [6] - CPC (Kazakhstan) volumes have been halved due to Ukrainian attacks, but the market is largely ignoring this [8] Supply and Demand - The market is discussing 2 to 3 million barrels per day of oversupply in Q1 of next year [6] - OPEC has unwanted production, and there has been non-OPEC supply growth from Guyana and Brazil [6]