CFR Fellow Vigil Discusses Venezuela Blockade

US-Venezuela Relations & Oil Industry Implications - The US is implementing a "quarantine" against Venezuela, targeting sanctioned oil tankers, which is a step below a blockade [1][2] - A de facto quarantine already exists due to vessels being hesitant to transit near Venezuela [2] - The US justifies the quarantine by enforcing existing sanctions on these tankers [3][4] - The action chokes off a vital feedstock (oil) for the Venezuelan economy, which is heavily reliant on oil exports [5][6] - Venezuela's oil exports are currently just below 900,000 barrels [6] Potential Economic Impact on Venezuela - The scope and enforcement mechanism of the quarantine will significantly impact Venezuela's ability to generate revenue [7] - There are approximately 30 US-sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters out of about 80 vessels [8] Shifting Justifications & Potential Motives - The initial justification of stopping drug trade has shifted to acquiring land and oil rights [16][17] - President Trump alleges that the US had oil rights that were taken away and "we want it back" [17] - The US may be using this as an opportunity to reclaim oil assets, with Chevron being the only remaining US company with a presence [18][19] - The operation may ultimately be about regime change and pressuring Nicolas Maduro [20] - The end goal might involve Venezuela making a deal with the US to return what Trump alleges has been stolen [21][22]