Oil market is significantly oversupplied, says CIBC's Rebecca Babin

Market Overview - Crude oil market is experiencing a battle between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply [1][3][4] - Geopolitical risks, including those involving Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, have not resulted in significant supply reductions [2] - The market is significantly oversupplied, with demand growth for 2025 projected at 1 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC supply is growing at 160% million barrels per day [3] - Fundamentals have won the battle for 2025, with crude down over 20% [5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand has outperformed expectations this year, projected to grow by around 1 million barrels per day this year and potentially 120% million barrels per day next year [8] - If geopolitical risks fade and demand weakens due to global growth risks, crude could test $50 WTI, potentially even $40 [8] - US producers are unlikely to cut back dramatically at the current crude strip, with a more significant response expected $5 lower [13] US Shale Producers - For most US shale producers, $55 is the level where some barrels start to become uneconomical, accelerating drastically below $50 [10] - At current price points, a potential 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day of production might come off [11] - US producers continue to improve efficiency and drive down break-even points [11][12]