The 3 things holding up the US economy and their downside risks

Inflation & Pricing - Gradual pass-through of tariff costs onto CPI inflation and consumer prices, with core goods prices rising at a 14% clip annually [2] - Services less energy are showing disinflation, rising at a 3% pace, driven by shelter cost disinflation, but this may be overstated [3][4] - Alleviating tariff cost pressures is a key lever to reduce pressures on businesses and potentially lower prices for consumers [9] - Since 2019, inflation has accumulated to approximately 25% [10] Economic Outlook & Growth - The US economy is supported by three "Apillars" of growth: affluent consumers, AI investment, and asset price appreciation (stock market gains) [11] - These pillars create a virtuous cycle but also represent a narrow and fragile foundation, with risks of an AI-related bubble and stock market correction [12][13][14] - Expects US growth of 19% next year, roughly on par with this year, supported by this narrow foundation [14] - Consumer spending is expected to grow at a moderate 15% pace [15] - Greater investment in AI-connected areas is anticipated [16] Economic Polarization - Expects greater polarization within and between economies, with the well-offs and AI-focused businesses driving most of the spending and investment [16][17]