What a 'K-shaped' economy means for America's income divide

Economic Trends - The report highlights the emergence of a K-shaped economy, where some Americans are thriving while others struggle to keep up with inflation [1][4][5] - Spending at wholesale retailers like Costco, Amazon, and Walmart has increased by 7% since 2024, even among those earning $100,000 per year [3] - The top 10% of earners account for almost half of all spending, with their spending up by 36% since the early 1990s [5] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly seeking value and better deals, especially families [1][2] - The bottom 80% of consumers are struggling to keep up with price inflation [5] - The top 10% of earners have increased their spending by almost 45% in the first half of 2025 [5] Economic Sustainability and Risks - A K-shaped economy is considered unsustainable in the medium to long run [6] - The Federal Reserve is observing the K-shaped economy and its potential risks [8] - The economic outlook for 2026 depends on the spending behavior of the top 20% of earners [9] Economic Recovery Shapes - The report contrasts the K-shaped economy with V-shaped, U-shaped, and L-shaped recoveries, referencing historical events like the 2008 recession and the 1973 oil crisis [7]