Roth Capital’s Bill Kirk points out convenience issues behind Costco’s disappointing year

Retail App Downloads & Trends - App downloads data is meaningful for assessing retailer convenience and shopper behavior [1] - Last-minute shoppers are increasingly using apps for in-store pickup, highlighting the importance of convenience [2][3] - Target has seen a resurgence in app downloads, reaching the number three spot, indicating improved customer consideration [3] Target Analysis - Roth Capital Partners maintains a neutral rating on Target, viewing any positive holiday performance as tactical [4] - Toys were up about 10% in 3Q [4] - Concerns remain about Target's long-term structural issues, including underinvestment and pricing [5][6] - Increased spending needs in calendar year 2026 pose an earnings risk for Target [6] Costco Analysis - Costco's app download numbers are not as strong [7] - Several metrics are trending negatively for Costco, including renewal rates, new member additions, and traffic [8] - Costco excels in offering value, but consumers are increasingly prioritizing convenience, where Costco is weaker [9][10][11] - Increased assortment overlap between Walmart.com and Costco is emerging [13]