Fed risks recession without more interest rate cuts, Miran says #shorts #miran #recession #fed

Economic Outlook - The speaker acknowledges recessions are inevitable, and the Fed's role is to mitigate them [1] - The speaker doesn't foresee a recession in the near term, partly because of policy rate adjustments [2] - Adjusting policy rates downward is crucial to counter the risk of rising recessions [3] Labor Market Analysis - The rise in the unemployment rate is a concern, as it has historically preceded recessions [1][2] - The speaker is assessing the risk of a near-term recession based on the labor market [2] Monetary Policy - Policy needs to adjust downward to reflect the downward shift in the neutral rate [3] - Continuing to adjust interest rates is important to prevent recession [3] Economic Shocks - Various shocks, including changes to population growth rate due to border policy changes, have pushed the neutral rate down [3]