Oil market prices show just how much supply is out there, says Sankey Research's Paul Sankey

Oil Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - Market perceives potential regime change in Venezuela as bearish due to potential increase in oil supply [1][2] - Despite geopolitical tensions (Venezuela, Israel/Iran, Russia/Ukraine), oil price remains relatively stable, suggesting abundant supply [3][4] - A source in the State Department indicated the Venezuela situation is aimed at lowering the oil price [14] - Cuba angle is confusing, especially regarding the administration's approach to Venezuela [13] Supply & Demand - Market is perceived to be in a glut of oil due to abundant supply [8] - Metals are experiencing high demand and supply issues, contrasting with the oil market [7][9] - US oil production remains strong despite a lower rig count, indicating high productivity [10] - Natural gas is cheap at $4, equivalent to $20 a barrel of oil [9] Company Performance & Investment - European major oil companies (BP, Shell, Total Energies) have generated significant returns for investors this year [4] - Trans Ocean rig, a highly leveraged name, experienced a notable increase in the fourth quarter, indicating contrarian trading [6] - Investors are beginning to consider the next phase of the oil market post-oversupply and are starting to invest in oil companies [6] Venezuela Refining Capacity - Venezuela possesses the world's largest single refinery with a capacity of over 1 million barrels per day, but it is currently not operational [11][12]