TikTok Says It Signed Agreements for New US Joint Venture

Deal Structure & Regulatory Landscape - Oracle is the most likely candidate to lead the joint venture [1] - The deal's palatability to both the US and Chinese governments remains uncertain, pending Chinese regulatory approval [2] - The joint venture has the US government's blessing, suggesting a pre-approved proposal [3] Competitive Dynamics - Instagram Reels' run rate has surpassed $50 billion, indicating significant growth and competition with TikTok [5] - YouTube Shorts' engagement share is nearing that of TikTok [6] - TikTok's US revenue is estimated to be between $12 billion and $15 billion [6] - Instagram/Meta's revenue ramp-up is attributed to a better ad stack and personalization, enhanced by generative AI [8] Challenges & Future Prospects - TikTok faces challenges in algorithm and ad personalization, hindering revenue growth [8][9] - Rewriting the algorithm and attracting talent are crucial for the joint venture's success [10][11] - A public offering for the new joint venture is considered premature due to ongoing algorithm changes [9][10] - Silver Lake's involvement is viewed positively, suggesting a potentially good deal [4]