Zelman's Alan Ratner on if housing will make a comback in 2026

Housing Market Sentiment and Affordability - Homebuilder sentiment remains negative despite a slight increase this month [1] - The Trump administration plans to release affordable housing plans in the new year [1] - Zelman highlights the complexity of housing affordability, emphasizing collaborative discussions between the administration and the industry [3] - Bottlenecks and inflation at the local municipality level (impact fees, approval delays) pose a significant challenge to improving housing affordability [4] - Federal government intervention in local politics is needed to make a substantial impact on housing affordability [4] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, while 30-year mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield [5] - Several Fed rate cuts have not resulted in a corresponding decrease in 30-year mortgage rates [5] - Potential measures to improve rates include adjusting loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs) and the Fed buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [6] - A significant reduction in mortgage rates in 2026 is unlikely [6] Tariffs and Construction Costs - Initial concerns that tariffs would increase home production costs by $5,000 to $10,000 per door have not materialized for large public builders [8] - Large public builders have used their size and scale to push back on trades, manufacturers, and suppliers, absorbing tariff costs [9] - New home prices have declined this year due to incentives like mortgage rate buydowns [10] - Reversing tariffs may benefit suppliers and manufacturers more than consumers [10]