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An analysis found that Kalshi’s implied forecasts for the federal funds target rate delivered an average absolute error over roughly a 150-day horizon comparable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s professional forecasters. The author argued that macro expectation data from markets like Kalshi—backed by real capital, continuously updated, and information-rich—could provide researchers and policymakers with a new real-time benchmark for expectations. https://t.co/ro5d8tgWzx ...