美股低开，七巨头集体下跌！美国一季度GDP负增长，美联储陷入“三难”

Economic Overview - The latest data shows that the U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, leading to a decline in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropping approximately 2% and the Dow Jones falling over 1% [1][10] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 32.1% of consumers expecting job losses in the next six months, a level close to that seen during the 2009 financial crisis [8][9] Stock Market Reaction - Major U.S. tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Apple down 1.72%, Microsoft down 1.99%, and Tesla down 6.22% [2][3] - European stock markets also saw collective declines, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC 40, and Germany's DAX all reporting losses [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices fell below $3,280 per ounce before rebounding, while crude oil futures and copper prices also experienced declines [6][7] - The current market volatility has led to a significant percentage of consumers (48.5%) expecting stock prices to decline in the next 12 months, the highest level since October 2011 [9] Inflation and Economic Challenges - The probability of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy has increased from 35% to 50%, with expectations of mild stagflation characterized by declining growth and persistent core inflation [11][12] - Key factors contributing to this economic outlook include unresolved supply-side shocks, sticky wage growth leading to potential second-round inflation pressures, and a projected federal budget deficit exceeding 6% of GDP in 2025 [12][13] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a "trilemma" involving conflicts between anti-inflation measures and growth stabilization, financial stability and policy independence, as well as domestic needs versus external capital flows [12][13] - A potential unconventional strategy may involve nominal interest rate reductions while maintaining high real interest rates, alongside targeted liquidity tools to navigate the complex macroeconomic landscape [13]