国内黄金ETF，一季度持仓量暴增！金价冲高回落，未来怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of gold as a safe-haven asset amid complex global macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, with prices reaching historical highs despite recent adjustments in the market [2]. Investment Demand and Physical Consumption Divergence - There is a notable divergence between investment demand and physical consumption of gold, with investment demand continuing to rise while physical consumption shows signs of weakness [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, China's gold consumption was 290.492 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins increased by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [4]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Gold prices reached a peak of $3,500 per ounce before adjusting to around $3,300 per ounce, maintaining a year-to-date increase of over 20% [6]. - Analysts suggest that profit-taking by investors is the primary reason for the recent price correction, with speculative positions in COMEX gold futures decreasing to a 14-month low [6]. - Many institutions remain optimistic about gold prices, with Deutsche Bank predicting a year-end price of $3,350 per ounce and an average price of $3,900 per ounce in the following year if demand from global central banks persists [6]. Key Variables Influencing Future Prices - Three core variables are expected to influence gold prices in May: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, geopolitical risks, and the performance of the photovoltaic industry [7]. - The potential for liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to support gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [7].