美联储，突传利好！

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the PCE price index has eased market concerns about a resurgence of high inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - The March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since last autumn, slightly above the expected 2.2% [4][6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.8%, with both PCE and core PCE showing no month-on-month change [2][4][6]. - Consumer spending in March increased by 0.7%, the largest gain since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [6]. - The probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 65.5%, while the likelihood of a cut next week remains low at 5.6% [12]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are cautious but may consider rate cuts if the labor market weakens significantly due to tariff policies [12][13]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as it may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [13]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the core PCE price index could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, marking a new high since September 2024 [8]. - The Fed's potential actions may be influenced by the outcome of trade agreements and the overall economic data in the coming months [12].