人民币，暴拉！美联储传来重磅！

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level since April 4, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and positive consumer sentiment during the May Day holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB against the USD rose by over 370 points, peaking at 7.24, the highest since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that signs of easing trade tensions have led to a release of bullish market sentiment, contributing to a collective rebound in global markets [2]. Group 2: May Day Holiday Consumption - Consumption during the May Day holiday exceeded market expectations, with historical highs in transportation data. The national railway is expected to send 144 million passengers, a 4.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - The aviation sector anticipates a total of 10.75 million passengers over the five-day holiday, averaging 2.15 million per day, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [3]. - The influx of foreign tourists to China has surged, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% during the holiday, driven by favorable policies and tax refund services [3][4]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals a need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with traders expecting a total cut of 100 basis points by the end of the year [5][6]. - The current two-year U.S. Treasury yield is 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33%, suggesting market pressure for a rate cut [5]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to influence market expectations regarding the Fed's rate decisions, with economists predicting a lower job growth figure compared to March [7].