21世纪经济报道·2025-05-03 14:58Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising international gold prices on different segments of the gold industry, highlighting the contrasting performance of upstream mining companies versus downstream consumers and the cautious attitudes of stakeholders in the industry [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Upstream mining companies have seen significant profit increases due to rising gold prices, while downstream consumer demand has decreased, particularly for jewelry, which is more sensitive to price [2][6]. - In 2024, the average net profit of 11 gold companies in the Shenwan sector reached 1.28 billion yuan, while Zijin Mining's gold production gross profit was 19.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin of nearly 56% [3]. - Companies like Shandong Gold and Hengbang have experienced declining profit margins due to rising costs, with Hengbang's gross margin dropping to 0.71% despite revenue growth [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Inventory - China's gold consumption in 2024 fell by 9.58% year-on-year, with jewelry and industrial gold usage declining significantly, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.54% increase [6]. - Companies heavily reliant on gold jewelry, such as Zhou Daxing and Lao Fengxiang, reported substantial revenue declines, with Zhou Daxing's revenue dropping over 47% in the first quarter of the year [7]. - Some downstream companies, like Zhou Daxing, have seen inventory levels rise, indicating a mismatch between production and consumer demand [10]. Group 3: Caution Among Stakeholders - Several gold companies, including Hunan Gold and Chifeng Gold, have reduced their inventory levels by significant percentages, indicating a cautious approach to potential price volatility [9][11]. - Fund holdings in gold companies have decreased, with total holdings dropping from 2.40 billion shares in June 2024 to 1.13 billion shares in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious sentiment among institutional investors [11][12]. - The article emphasizes the complexity of gold pricing and the need for market participants to be vigilant, especially those who may be blindly chasing price increases [12].