节中离岸人民币狂飙！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent reversal of the "Sell America" trade sentiment, highlighting a significant rebound in U.S. stock markets and a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, driven by optimistic expectations regarding trade negotiations and economic data [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has experienced a continuous rise for nine trading days, marking the longest streak since 2004, effectively recovering losses from early April [5]. - The optimism in the market is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, such as the U.S. exempting Canada and Mexico from a 25% tariff on auto parts [6]. - Economic resilience is reflected in the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which showed an addition of 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding market expectations [8]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The offshore yuan has appreciated significantly, with the USD/CNY exchange rate reported at 7.211, marking an increase of nearly 700 points for the week [12]. - The strengthening of the yuan is seen as a response to the positive sentiment in U.S. markets, with capital flowing back into U.S. assets, particularly from the Japanese bond market [12]. - The article notes that while a depreciation of the yuan could enhance export competitiveness, significant depreciation would lead to capital outflow pressures, suggesting that China may rely on fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article anticipates that the ongoing trade negotiations will continue to influence market dynamics, with expectations of a "framework agreement" emerging in the coming month [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market has also shown strength, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding by 1.74% on May 2, driven by positive sentiment from the central government's macroeconomic policies [13]. - Analysts suggest that investors should adopt a range trading strategy while closely monitoring developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential changes in non-tariff barriers [13].