五一最火赛道，节后怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The tourism sector is experiencing a significant rebound during the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and strong demand, indicating a potential shift from a "revenge travel" phase to a more normalized high prosperity phase in the Chinese tourism market [6][22]. Group 1: Tourism Demand and Trends - This year's May Day holiday marks the first holiday after the announcement of an extended break, leading to a notable release of long-distance travel demand [1][2]. - Nationally, ticket bookings for popular scenic spots increased by 30% year-on-year during the May Day period [3]. - Major attractions like Shanghai Disneyland and Beijing Universal Studios saw daily visitor numbers exceed 100,000 [4]. - The national railway is expected to transport 144 million passengers from April 29 to May 6, a 4.9% increase year-on-year, setting a historical record [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Support and Economic Indicators - The tourism market is characterized by a "volume and price increase" trend due to supportive policies [9]. - Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates that cross-regional mobility reached 33.27 million people on May 1, a 6.2% increase year-on-year [10]. - Retail and catering sales saw a 15% year-on-year increase, while tourism revenue grew by 20% during the first two days of the holiday [11]. Group 3: Travel Preferences and Consumer Behavior - Long-distance travel, cross-border movement, and the rise of county-level tourism are key trends this year [16]. - Long-distance travel accounted for 46% of total bookings, with a significant increase in mid-to-high-end free travel and customized travel demand [16]. - Cross-border tourism orders surged by 173% year-on-year, driven by policies like temporary visa exemptions and tax refunds [18]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Stock Performance - Historically, the tourism sector often experiences "data heat, stock cold" phenomena, where strong performance metrics do not translate into stock price increases [7][23]. - The tourism sector's performance before the holiday often leads to a market that has already priced in expectations, resulting in potential declines post-holiday [26][30]. - In the lead-up to this year's May Day, several tourism stocks saw significant gains, indicating pre-holiday positioning by investors [29]. Group 5: Industry Competition and Future Outlook - The tourism industry is facing increasing competition, with more companies entering the market, leading to potential profit declines for listed companies [45][47]. - Companies with scarce resources, strong operational capabilities, and technological barriers are expected to have greater potential for growth [48]. - The tourism sector is projected to continue benefiting from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [54][56].