「摩根士丹利」最新人形机器人研报：5万亿美元全球市场和最佳商业模式解读（附报告）

Core Insights - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with an estimated stock of over 1 billion units, significantly surpassing the current automotive market size [3][5] - Middle-income countries like China and Brazil are expected to account for over 50% of the installed base, while high-income countries such as the US and Japan will represent about 30% [3] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robot market is experiencing a phase of growth, with a focus on commercial models and technological advancements [3][5] - The most valuable aspect of humanoid robots is the large model (e.g., VLA models), which determines the robots' generalization capabilities [5][8] Value Chain Analysis - Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) with humanoid brains, bodies, brands, and ecosystems hold the highest value, followed by independent large model developers like NVIDIA and Google [6][9] - The supply chain dynamics vary based on market potential and technological barriers, with China being particularly advantageous in this regard [6] Commercialization Opportunities - Commercial robots in industrial and business environments are expected to see initial sales growth, while household robots may take longer to gain traction [6][9] - Companies that can simultaneously target both commercial and household markets are likely to be the most valuable [6] Cost Reduction and Supply Chain Impact - The potential for cost reduction in humanoid robots is significant, with the Chinese supply chain playing a crucial role [6][9] - The report notes that trade tensions may lead to higher costs for US manufacturers compared to their Chinese counterparts, but this will not hinder the adoption of humanoid robots [6] Competitive Landscape - The humanoid robot integration market is highly competitive, with 141 humanoid robots launched since 2024, and over 80 new startups in China alone [9][13] - Major tech companies and automotive manufacturers are increasingly entering the humanoid robot space, with notable players including Tesla, Google, and Huawei [13][14]