黑天鹅突袭！刚刚，大跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected failure of Friedrich Merz, the candidate for Chancellor from the German CDU party, to secure enough votes in the first round of voting has caused significant market reactions and raised concerns about the stability of the German government and its implications for the European market [2][4]. Group 1: Political Developments - Friedrich Merz failed to be elected Chancellor in the first round of voting, marking the first time since World War II that a candidate did not receive parliamentary support in the first round [2][4]. - The CDU and SPD had recently signed a coalition agreement, which was expected to facilitate the formation of a new government [4]. - Merz received only 310 votes, falling short of the 316 needed for a majority, which surprised many, including members of his own party [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the voting results, the DAX 30 index dropped over 2%, impacting stock indices across Europe, including a decline of 0.46% in the Euro Stoxx 50 and 0.32% in the French CAC40 [2][3]. - The DAX index's decline was later moderated to a 0.6% drop as the market reacted to the news [5]. Group 3: EU Trade Policies - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, with plans to impose tariffs on approximately €100 billion (about $113 billion) worth of U.S. goods if trade negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [6][8]. - EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis indicated that the EU would not accept unfair pressure from the U.S. and is considering all options for countermeasures [7][8]. - Current U.S. tariffs cover 70% of EU exports to the U.S., which could rise to 97% following further investigations into U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [8].