在岸人民币大涨近600点，升至去年11月来最高，后续升值空间多大？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in exchange rates have made the market focus on the significant appreciation of the Renminbi, which rose nearly 600 points, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year, driven by positive signals from US tariff negotiations [1][2] Group 1: Renminbi Appreciation Potential - The short-term appreciation potential of the Renminbi is expected to be limited, with a range between 7.10 and 7.20, as the central bank's intervention intentions are not clearly indicated [2] - Historical experience shows that the central bank is particularly concerned about the levels around 7.1 and 7.0, which may act as psychological barriers [2] - The central bank may need to control the Renminbi's depreciation against other currencies to avoid new frictions, particularly with the Euro, where the current exchange rate is 8.21 [2] Group 2: Signals from Asian Currency Volatility - The collective movements of Asian currencies may indicate a structural change in exchange rate paradigms, suggesting ongoing pressure on the US dollar [3][4] - The Hong Kong dollar, pegged to the US dollar, faces concerns about maintaining its "weak-side guarantee" amidst a weakening dollar system, which could lead to increased liquidity in the Hong Kong market [3] - The Taiwanese dollar's depreciation and widening interest rate differentials with the US may lead financial institutions to seek diversification strategies, reducing exposure to US assets [3][4] - The Renminbi's mechanism of limiting volatility through central bank interventions and the distinction between onshore and offshore markets may lead to significant fluctuations during long holidays, followed by a return to normal trading patterns post-holiday [4]