2.5万亿美元大逃亡：亚洲资本倒戈恐引发美元雪崩？

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a massive sell-off of up to $2.5 trillion in U.S. dollars is looming as Asian countries gradually reduce their dollar reserves, driven by an expanding trade surplus with the U.S. and escalating trade tensions [1][6]. Group 1: Dollar Sell-off Risks - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire highlight that the accumulation of dollar reserves by Asian exporters and investors could lead to significant downward pressure on the dollar against Asian currencies [1]. - The report suggests that the scale of dollar reserves held by Asian exporters and institutional investors may be extremely large, estimated at around $2.5 trillion, posing a major risk to the dollar's value [1][5]. - The recent unusual appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has drawn attention, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index having declined approximately 8% from its February peak [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Trade Dynamics - Jen previously predicted that a Federal Reserve rate cut could lead to about $1 trillion in dollar-denominated assets being sold off by Chinese companies, resulting in capital returning to China [4]. - The existence of "naked long" dollar positions in Asian countries, which lack hedging against dollar fluctuations, could accelerate capital flows amounting to trillions of dollars [5]. - Market analysts, including those from JPMorgan, have noted that the return of accumulated dollar assets from years of trade surpluses is a significant factor behind the strengthening of Asian currencies [6]. Group 3: U.S. Trade Deficits and Financial Accounts - The U.S. has experienced a current account deficit exceeding $1 trillion over the past 12 months, correlating with foreign investors' net purchases of U.S. assets [7]. - The relationship between trade and capital is emphasized, suggesting that tariffs could reduce the U.S. trade and current account deficits while also impacting other countries' surpluses [8]. - The imbalance in financial accounts may lead to capital outflows and risks of asset price declines and currency depreciation for the U.S., while countries with trade surpluses may experience capital inflows and currency appreciation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - Analysts predict that the U.S. is likely to face net capital outflows, with significant amounts of capital potentially leaving the U.S. stock market in the future [11]. - Tariffs are expected to suppress global exports, leading to a decline in foreign demand for dollar assets, which are heavily utilized in international trade [12].