深夜！关税，突传大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The global market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which will clarify the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation and interest rate outlooks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts [5][6]. - The next anticipated rate cut is pushed to July, with expectations of two to three cuts by the end of the year [6]. - Market participants are particularly interested in how Fed Chair Powell will address tariff policies and their implications for inflation during the upcoming press conference [6][7]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Market Reactions - Ongoing tariff negotiations are causing fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, with Vice President Pence indicating discussions with the EU to open markets for U.S. goods [2][3]. - The EU is prepared to impose 20% tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks showed mixed performance, with notable declines in Google and Microsoft, while Amazon saw a rise of over 2% [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns about inflation and the labor market are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with a focus on employment data as a key reference [6][7]. - The relationship between President Trump and Powell is under scrutiny, as Powell aims to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing market concerns [7].