不降息！美联储凌晨发布！鲍威尔发声

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%—4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing concerns over rising inflation and unemployment risks [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve has held the benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive time, emphasizing the significant impact of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding economic data [2][4]. - The Fed's statement highlights that despite fluctuations in trade data, many indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at low levels [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed aims for a long-term inflation target of 2% while acknowledging that current inflation levels remain slightly elevated [4]. - The uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased, with the Fed noting that the risks of higher unemployment and inflation have risen [4][9]. Group 3: Powell's Remarks - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current inflation rate is still above the target level, and he dismissed the idea of preemptively lowering rates without more data [8][9]. - Powell indicated that the tariffs announced by President Trump have exceeded expectations and could significantly impact the economic outlook, suggesting that the Fed is in a position to observe how these uncertainties develop [8][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Analysts from various institutions commented on the Fed's decision, with some suggesting that the potential for economic growth appears to be cooling, which may lead to rate cuts as early as July [12]. - Others noted that the Fed is likely to maintain rates unless there is significant weakness in the labor market, which may take time to manifest [12].