鲍威尔说了22遍“等待”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in response to President Trump's trade policies, highlighting the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other developed economies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach, using the term "waiting" 22 times during a press conference to indicate that the Fed is not in a hurry to act [1]. - Powell stated that the costs of waiting and further observation are relatively low, which reflects the Fed's cautious attitude towards preemptive rate cuts amid uncertainties caused by Trump's trade policies [2][4]. - The Fed's reluctance to cut rates preemptively is influenced by recent high inflation in the U.S., with officials concerned that cutting rates could exacerbate inflationary pressures [4][7]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Economies - Other economies have not yet implemented large-scale tariffs on imports, allowing them to focus on addressing demand weakness and labor market cooling without the inflation concerns faced by the Fed [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates seven times in the past year, totaling 175 basis points, while the Fed has maintained rates between 4.25% and 4.5% since the beginning of the year [6]. - The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates, with predictions of at least a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a faster pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed [6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Economists at JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's first rate cut to September, while Goldman Sachs predicts cuts starting in July, with a total of three cuts expected throughout the year [8][9]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe is likely to widen, with Goldman Sachs forecasting that the ECB will continue to cut rates until September, potentially lowering its benchmark rate to 1.5% [9]. - The inflation rates in the U.S. and Eurozone are currently similar, but their future trajectories may diverge significantly, with potential implications for monetary policy decisions in both regions [10].