第一财经·2025-05-08 14:14Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-EU trade negotiations may lead to the EU imposing tariffs on US aircraft if no positive outcomes are achieved, which could significantly impact both the US and European aerospace industries [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Airbus CEO expressed concerns that if the US-EU trade talks do not yield satisfactory results, the EU may impose reciprocal tariffs on US aircraft to encourage higher-level negotiations [1]. - The EU is considering additional tariffs on approximately €100 billion (about $113 billion) worth of US goods, with civil aircraft likely included in the tariff list [1]. - The EU's proposed countermeasures will be shared with member states and will undergo a month-long consultation before finalizing the list [1]. Group 2: Impact on Aerospace Industry - The US aerospace and defense products have a significant trade surplus, with exports nearing $136 billion in 2023, while imports are just below $22 billion [5]. - The potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU could have a more substantial negative impact on the US aerospace industry than the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Airbus [5]. - Airlines are concerned about the additional costs associated with tariffs, with some executives stating they are unwilling to pay these costs, which could lead to delays in aircraft deliveries [6][7]. Group 3: Airline Responses and Economic Outlook - Major US airlines, including Delta and American Airlines, have expressed reluctance to absorb the costs of tariffs, indicating that they may delay aircraft deliveries if tariffs are implemented [7][8]. - Airlines are already adjusting their strategies to avoid tariffs, such as rerouting aircraft deliveries to minimize costs [7]. - Economic uncertainty exacerbated by tariffs has led several airlines to withdraw their annual performance forecasts, indicating a cautious outlook for growth [8].