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人民币汇率，跌破7.25
21世纪经济报道·2025-05-09 07:00

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD, highlighting the impact of various economic factors and the growing use of RMB in cross-border transactions, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Exchange Rate Dynamics - On May 9, both onshore and offshore RMB fell below 7.25 against the USD before recovering slightly [1] - The USD index rose significantly by 1.03% on May 8, reaching a one-month high of 100.639, influenced by strong employment data and a limited trade agreement between the US and the UK [1] - The article notes that the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around a new central point, with the central bank focusing on correcting one-sided expectations [4] RMB Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent data shows a decline in offshore RMB liquidity indicators, with CNH Hibor rates falling across various maturities, indicating ample liquidity in the offshore RMB market [7][8] - The one-month CNH Hibor dropped by 8 basis points, reflecting a decrease in the difficulty of obtaining RMB in the Hong Kong market [8] Cross-Border RMB Usage - In March, RMB accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the USD's 49% [10] - The CIPS system has seen steady growth since its launch in 2015, processing a total of approximately 600 trillion yuan in payments by the end of 2024, with a 43% year-on-year increase in cross-border RMB payments [10] - The proportion of RMB used in cross-border transactions by Chinese investors and trade companies reached a record high of 54.3% in March, totaling 72.49 billion USD [12] Regional Developments - Cross-border RMB transactions with Malaysia and Cambodia have surged, with transaction amounts increasing by 27% and 45% respectively in the first quarter of the year [13] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage is attributed to deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP framework [13]