工业硅供需基本面未出现明显好转 价格持续下跌

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon supply and demand fundamentals have not improved entering the second quarter, with a lack of significant growth in downstream demand, primarily driven by just-in-time purchasing [1] Supply Side - Some northern manufacturers have reduced production by shutting down furnaces, while southern regions maintain low operating rates, leading to a decrease in overall output from existing capacity [1] - New capacity investment plans are slowing down, but there is some actual output supplementing the overall production, which is expected to increase significantly during the flood season [1] Demand Side - The price of organic silicon monomer has significantly increased due to production cut plans, restoring profits; however, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, leading to a substantial price drop [1] - Monomer manufacturers are maintaining current operating levels with a willingness to support prices, resulting in stable demand for industrial silicon [1] - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, and aluminum alloy companies are producing steadily, purchasing industrial silicon as needed, leading to little change in overall demand [1] Inventory Situation - Industrial silicon inventory remains high, exceeding 900,000 tons, and is roughly flat compared to the end of the first quarter, indicating difficulties in inventory consumption [1] Overall Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market faces significant inventory pressure, coupled with weak downstream demand, making it difficult for prices to rise; however, prices have fallen below the cost line, indicating limited downside potential [1]