卡牌的二手江湖

Core Insights - The trading of collectible cards in the primary market is booming, which is driving rapid growth in the secondary market, although both markets are still in their infancy in China [3][6] - The value of collectible cards, the popularity of intellectual properties (IPs), and the issuance strategies of companies will significantly impact the secondary market [3][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is experiencing a surge, with companies like 卡游 (Kayo) leading the market with over 70% market share [3] - Kayo's revenue is projected to reach 100.57 billion yuan in 2024, a threefold increase from the previous year, with a net profit of 44.66 billion yuan, marking a 378.16% year-on-year growth [3][11] - The secondary market is heavily influenced by the popularity of specific IPs, with 小马宝莉 (My Little Pony) becoming a key driver of Kayo's revenue growth in 2024 [11][12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, such as students, are actively participating in the card trading market, often selling cards for profit despite not being fans of the IPs [2][5] - The probability of obtaining rare cards is low, with some cards having a chance as low as 0.062%, making the experience akin to gambling [2][5] - The secondary market is seeing significant transactions, with some cards selling for thousands of yuan, far exceeding their original purchase price [6][11] Group 3: Rating and Valuation - The demand for graded cards is increasing, with domestic grading institutions seeing a surge in orders, particularly for 小马宝莉 cards [8][9] - Graded cards serve both a collectible and aesthetic purpose, differing from international markets where grading is more focused on investment [8][9] - The domestic grading market is evolving, with a goal to establish standardized grading and pricing systems [9][12] Group 4: Future Potential - The collectible card market in China has significant growth potential, with per capita spending on collectible cards currently at only 8.6 yuan compared to 92.3 yuan in Japan and 50.7 yuan in the U.S. [12] - The overall market for entertainment products in China is expected to exceed 330 billion yuan by 2029, indicating a growing interest in collectible cards [12] - However, the secondary market may face challenges from the primary market, especially with companies reviving popular cards, which could disrupt the value of existing cards [12]