巴菲特为何长期持有日本商社股份？

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett announced at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that he will hold shares in Japan's five major trading companies for the long term, without considering selling them for the next 50 years, which has positively impacted their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Perspective - The five major trading companies in Japan, including Itochu, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, and Marubeni, experienced stock price increases following Buffett's announcement, with Mitsui and Marubeni seeing rises of 6% [1]. - Buffett's investment philosophy, which has been practiced for 60 years, is expected to continue under his successor, Abel, despite concerns about whether the company will maintain its long-term investment strategy [1][2]. - The trading companies have been historically undervalued, with Mitsubishi's PBR at 0.86 in 2019 compared to the Nikkei average of 1.1, indicating a potential for growth as they adapt to changing market conditions [2]. Group 2: Company Resilience and Strategy - Japanese trading companies have evolved through crises, leveraging their international networks to build global competitiveness and maintain profitability, as seen with Mitsubishi's investments in shale oil and data centers [3]. - Marubeni has managed to sustain profits in the power sector and benefit from international LNG trading despite falling resource prices, projecting a market value exceeding 10 trillion yen by 2030 [3][4]. - The companies are increasing shareholder returns through measures like dividend hikes and stock buybacks, which align with Buffett's investment criteria [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - Buffett's long-term commitment to these trading companies is expected to boost investor confidence in the Japanese stock market, potentially marking a turning point for its performance [4]. - There is speculation that other sectors, particularly financial and real estate, may see increased investment interest as a result of Buffett's influence [4]. Group 4: Cautionary Notes - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding Japan's economic fragility and the reasons behind Buffett's specific focus on these trading companies, as he has been cautious in his investments [5]. - Buffett has expressed regret for not investing more in Japan, indicating a strategic approach that balances optimism with caution, as evidenced by his continued issuance of yen-denominated bonds [5][6].