阿尔法工场研究院·2025-05-11 10:12Core Viewpoint - The decline in stock price of SMIC is primarily attributed to the less-than-ideal guidance for Q2 performance, with expected revenue decrease of 4%-6% and gross margin dropping to 18%-20% [1][2][14]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, SMIC's total shipment volume reached 2.292 million pieces, equivalent to 8-inch standard logic wafers, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.08% [3]. - Revenue for Q1 was $2.247 billion, showing a modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.81%, indicating a significant decline in average selling price (ASP) [5]. - The capacity utilization rate for Q1 was 89.6%, up by 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 12-inch utilization remaining stable and 8-inch utilization rising [6]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - The quarterly EBITDA increased slightly by 0.93% to $1.292 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 74.77% to $188 million [8]. - Revenue by region showed that China accounted for 84.3%, the Americas for 12.6%, and Eurasia for 3.1%, with stable income from China and growth in overseas customer revenue [8]. Group 3: Product Segmentation - Revenue from various applications remained stable, with smartphones, computers and tablets, consumer electronics, and wearables contributing 24.2%, 17.3%, 40.6%, and 8.3% respectively [10]. - Revenue from industrial and automotive sectors grew over 20% quarter-on-quarter, increasing its share from 8.2% to 9.6%, attributed to advancements with major automotive clients [10]. Group 4: Q2 Guidance and Challenges - For Q2, SMIC projects a revenue decline of 4%-6%, with ASP expected to decrease and gross margin guidance lowered to 18%-20% [14]. - The decline in guidance is influenced by unexpected maintenance issues and equipment validation processes affecting product yield and ASP [14][15]. - Despite challenges, management noted that the fundamentals remain stable compared to Q1, with continued strong capacity utilization [15]. Group 5: Shareholder Activity - The National Integrated Circuit Fund (commonly known as the "Big Fund") reduced its holdings in SMIC, decreasing from 617 million shares at the end of 2024 to 551 million shares in Q1 2025, lowering its stake from 7.74% to 6.91% [16].