关税使中国对美出口急减

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April, marking the largest drop since July 2023, primarily due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from China [1][2] Group 1: Export Trends - In April, China's exports to the U.S. amounted to $33 billion, reflecting a 21% decrease year-on-year, with the decline attributed to the 145% tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China's 125% retaliatory tariffs [1] - The export of key products to the U.S. has seen notable reductions, including a 20% decrease in smartphone exports and a 7% decrease in toy exports compared to the previous year [1] - Despite the decline in exports to the U.S., China has experienced an increase in exports to other regions, with exports to ASEAN rising by 21% and to the EU and Japan increasing by 8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to negatively impact China's overall economic growth, potentially reducing the growth rate by approximately 3 percentage points, leading to a projected growth rate of around 2% by the end of 2026 [2] - In April, China's imports from the U.S. also fell by 13.8% to $12.5 billion, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [2] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 4-9% growth in China's exports to regions outside the U.S., indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] Group 3: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China remains low, with net inflows of $14.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, which is less than 20% of the peak levels seen in early 2022 [3] - The ongoing tariff competition between the U.S. and China is becoming a burden for foreign companies, leading to a noticeable decline in their operations within China [3] - Major companies, such as TOTO and General Motors, have announced significant reductions in their manufacturing capacities in China, indicating a trend of foreign firms reconsidering their investments in the country [3]