第一财经·2025-05-12 03:05Core Viewpoint - The competition between the two leading GLP-1 weight loss drugs, Tirzepatide and Semaglutide, is intensifying, with recent studies showing Tirzepatide's superior weight loss efficacy compared to Semaglutide [1][2]. Group 1: Clinical Study Results - The SURMOUNT-5 study demonstrated that patients using Tirzepatide lost an average of 20.2% of their body weight after 72 weeks, compared to 13.7% for those using Semaglutide, indicating a nearly 50% higher weight loss effect for Tirzepatide [1]. - In the study, 64.6% of participants on Tirzepatide achieved a weight loss of at least 15%, while only 40.1% of those on Semaglutide did [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Tirzepatide's sales exceeded $2.3 billion in the first quarter, while Semaglutide's weight loss sales were approximately $2.64 billion, reflecting a 13% quarter-over-quarter decline for Semaglutide [2]. - Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped nearly 50% since its peak in June last year, attributed to the competitive pressure from Tirzepatide's strong data [2]. Group 3: Future Market Potential - Barclays Bank projects that the global weight loss drug market could reach $150 billion by 2030, with China emerging as a significant market following the U.S. [4]. - Over 500 million adults in China are affected by overweight and obesity, with obesity-related healthcare costs expected to account for 22% of national medical expenses by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Development of New Drugs - Both companies are accelerating the development of next-generation GLP-1 weight loss drugs, with oral formulations being a key area of competition [4]. - Novo Nordisk's oral Semaglutide application has been accepted by the FDA, with a decision expected in Q4 of this year, potentially making it the first oral GLP-1 drug for long-term weight management [4].