关禾兑

Core Viewpoint - The recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in Geneva resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with U.S. tariffs decreasing from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%, at least for the next 90 days [1][2] Tariff Changes - U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are currently at 30%, which includes a 20% "fentanyl tax" imposed by the Trump administration due to concerns over drug trafficking [1] - The negotiations led to the temporary cancellation of 24% of the tariffs, which was better than expected [2] Trade Balance and Impact - China's trade surplus with the U.S. is significant, with one-third of its surplus in 2024 expected to come from the U.S. market [2] - Even with equal tax rates, China is at a disadvantage due to its larger export volume compared to the U.S. [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2% and A50 futures increased by 1%, indicating a positive market reaction [2] - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 1.3 trillion, with a median increase of 1% across various sectors [3] Sector Performance - The military sector experienced a notable increase of 4.8%, possibly due to expectations of increased international sales [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector faced significant declines, with stock prices dropping between 30% to 80% due to proposed price controls by the Trump administration [4][6] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Chinese yuan remained stable around 7.2, with no significant fluctuations observed [2] - Oil prices increased by 3% due to anticipated demand from improved trade relations, while gold prices fell by 3% as the urgency for gold diminished [3]