第一财经·2025-05-12 15:12Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva have led to significant progress, including substantial reductions in tariffs on both sides, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment and investor confidence in Chinese assets [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Talks and Tariff Reductions - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of retaliatory tariffs, with 24% of these tariffs suspended for 90 days [1]. - China will reciprocate by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and suspending 24% of the 34% retaliatory tariffs for 90 days [1]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the offshore RMB rebounded significantly against the USD, and the Hang Seng Index surged by 2.98% [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% on the same day, reflecting positive market sentiment [3]. Expert Insights - Experts believe the talks exceeded expectations and indicate a willingness for continued communication, which is crucial for managing bilateral differences [2][5]. - The principle of reciprocity in the joint statement is seen as beneficial for controlling disputes between the two nations [5]. Economic Outlook - The progress in U.S.-China relations is viewed as a key factor in improving macroeconomic conditions, with strong export performance reported [7]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight view on Chinese assets, citing a recovery in the MSCI China Index and a 12% year-to-date increase [7]. Future Considerations - The ongoing developments in tariffs and the overall profitability of Chinese companies will be critical for future market performance [9]. - Analysts anticipate further discussions to ease tensions within a month, with a focus on establishing a trade framework before the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 [9]. Corporate Performance - Key trends in corporate earnings are emerging, with H-shares outperforming A-shares and expectations of a 14% profit growth for the MSCI China Index in the 2024 fiscal year [11]. - Major Chinese tech companies like JD, Tencent, and Alibaba are set to report earnings, with market expectations varying based on their performance in the AI sector and other business areas [11].