鲍威尔，又多了一个等待的理由

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks have significantly reduced tariffs, leading to improved economic prospects for the US and a potential delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5][7]. Group 1: US-China Trade Talks - The US has canceled 91% of its additional tariffs, while China has reciprocated with a similar reduction, marking a substantial step in bilateral trade relations [3]. - The Geneva meeting is the first face-to-face interaction between senior economic officials from the US and China since President Trump took office, highlighting the importance of ongoing dialogue [3]. - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate supply chain disruptions and concerns regarding the global economy, with nearly $600 billion in bilateral trade previously affected [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a rebound in US GDP growth to 2.3% in the second quarter, following an unexpected decline in the first quarter [4]. - JPMorgan has reduced the probability of a recession from 60% to 35%, citing positive developments in trade negotiations and resilient macroeconomic data [4]. - The recent trade negotiations are seen as a catalyst for broader investment opportunities across various asset classes [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Following the trade talks, market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders now anticipating a delay until September and a total reduction of only 50 basis points by year-end [5]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, citing rising risks related to inflation and unemployment [5]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that external pressures, including those from President Trump, will not alter the Fed's policy-making approach [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Consumer Spending - Analysts suggest that the reduction in tariffs may lower the risks of commodity shortages and inflation, allowing the Fed to adopt a more patient stance regarding interest rate adjustments [7]. - Upcoming CPI data is expected to show a potential rebound in inflation rates, influenced by recent changes in trade dynamics [6]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by increased consumer spending pressure, with slowing growth in labor compensation costs and reduced energy and transportation costs, which may help mitigate inflation linked to tariffs [6].