第一财经·2025-05-13 05:31Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in A-shares has seen a significant increase in attention and investment, with a notable rise in stock prices driven by market sentiment and geopolitical factors, despite underlying performance challenges in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The military ETF recorded a cumulative increase of 4.91% last week, with a further rise of 4.68% on May 12, 2024, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The defense and military index has seen a cumulative increase of 13.42% since May, ranking among the top three sectors in terms of growth [4]. - Key stocks such as AVIC Chengfei (中航成飞) and Morningstar Aviation (晨曦航空) experienced significant price surges, with some stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the military sector's total revenue was 1,067.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.15% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 4.40% to 56.14 billion yuan [4][5]. - The overall profitability of the military sector remains at a low point compared to previous cycles, with many companies experiencing a decline in net profit despite some revenue recovery [2][4]. - Among 40 leading companies, the average revenue growth rate in Q1 was 15.14%, a recovery from the previous year's decline [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Companies in the military sector have set optimistic revenue targets for 2025, with expected growth rates for key players such as AVIC Xi'an (中航西飞) and AVIC High-Tech (中航高科) ranging from 2% to 14% [8]. - The contract liabilities of major manufacturers have increased, indicating a potential for revenue realization in the coming quarters [8]. - Despite a reduction in public fund allocations to the military sector over the past ten quarters, there is a belief that the sector's fundamentals will improve, leading to a potential recovery in valuations [9][10].